Any ideas what we may or should be fishing for? There are a couple young pitchers around I really like, they'd bring more than Wiggy though. I do not want to see PTBN.
Hopefully he has the appeal that Roch suggests. I still can't imagine coming away with a great big plus. This takes me right back to asking why did we sign the dopey Dominican?? Wiggy would be fine until Bell is ready, and even if Bell never comes around, does it matter right this minute?

Maybe one of our stat-nosticators could give me us idea of how many more games the O's should win with Tejada at 3B for 150 games as opposed Wiggington?

Using WAR, since that is the value we started with, for 2009:
Wigginton = -0.3
Tejada = 2.6

The projections (from CHONE and FANS) I found at Fangraphs were:
Wigginton = .3 CHONE and 1.1 Fans
Tejada = 1.8 CHONE and 2.1 Fans

I know Wiggy wasn't the best, but to be worse than a replacement player is hard to believe.

Thanks Jack, but I don't understand even a little. I guess I would have to see A. Rod opposed to Wiggington to give it relevance.
Wigginton = -0.3
Tejada = 2.6
2.6 what?
Guess I need to google WAR

The replacement player thing eludes me. Bark says Wiggy is worse than an RP, doesn't it matter who the RP is? Or is there just some average of numbers that are attached to RP'S?

Alex Rodrieguez's WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for 2009 was, 4.4 in 2008 it was 6.0. The projections for him in 2010 are 5.0 by CHONE and 6.0 by Fans.

Wins Above Replacement, like VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) is based on formulating a replacement player, that is a hypothetical player who makes near the MLB minimum salary, and the WAR and VORP stats attempts to equate real players against the "replacement player's" stats. A "replacement player" represents a very basically skilled and productive major league player who can be had for around the MLB minimum wage.

I am not an expert and the above is based on my understanding of the metrics involved in determining the mythical "replacement" player against whom real players are compared.

Thanks, Jack. That makes it much easier to understand.

The next issue is the relative value of a WAR. You gave an explanation in a prior thread and I came away with the impression you said that if you replaced the particular player with one of the minimum salary guys, you would lose that many more games (or the positive, with A Rod, you would gain 4.4 wins more with him in your line for the year than with the replacement player). So Miggy was worth two+ more victories, A Rod 4.4 more, last year.

Now does that mean you only look at comparisons between the individual player against the replacement player, without considering how the teammates play around your guy v. a replacement player? This is not a chemistry discussion, but it moves in that direction. If guys love playing with Jeter (I mean, on the baseball diamond), and they perform better or are more confident, can you measure that?

At some point it seems that a high WAR is 5+. That is not very much. Would Texeira be worth 5 games at $18M or whatever? And a replacement player not be worth it? Would 5 games (a WAR at 5) ever justify a big salary?

Do those questions make sense, or am I missing something?

Makes sense to me Andrew. WAR really doesn't. I get it, now. Still don't buy it. To suggest A.Rod is a mere 2 game a season upgrade over Tejada, or 5 games over a warm body is close to being absurd.
Measuring affection a player has for another player I think does matter. Not if the like him personally, but if he improves their game i.e pitches they see, creating RBI situations, etc. Not sure it can be equated with a hard number but if you add an A.Rod-like player to your lineup, everyone's offense improves almost invariably.

Yeah that never made sense to me either. Of course most teams are going to win 60 games and lose 60 games. If those WAR games make up the other 42 games, then it begins to make sense. I have never seen it written that way, I just believe that so I can sleep at night :lol:

There is a post here that explains it, but I feel as though doing one's income taxes is far easier.

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/..._calculate_war/

That is so true it's cracking me up!

Bringing salary into the equation confuses me. Defining the replacement-player as a player no team would currently want to start would elucidate the qualifications.

Suppose a team were destined to finish the season 81-81. If, as WAR suggests, Tejada is worth 4 more wins, the team instead finishes 85-78. Looking at it like this offers WAR a little more credibility for me.

Yes of course Andrew, sabermetricians can measure anything.

The metric you are looking for here is LOVE (Likeability Overall Value Element). This Spearman Ranking is a list-type metric based on a player's standing among his positional peers for likeability.

The outfield base player is Melky Cabrera, who has a 0, zero LOVE rating. Therefore his WAR is unaffected. There are LOVE values for each position among current players and these add to or are subtracted from WAR values.

AJ Pierzynski for example currently has a LOVE of -1.3 among catchers. Melvin Mora had a LOVE of 2.7 for third base.

LOVE is determined by Sports Illustrated polls at the beginning and end of each season.

I hope this has been helpful.

:lol: If that isn't a Messick Myth I have never heard one!

Morning Milt
LOVE is not in the same league with my "swallow" books and studies.

Afternoon Jack, I still don't "swallow" that one :lol: